[VN] Developing Asia to fuel global growth but risks ahead – ADB
April 6, 2017
Countries like India, Malaysia, Indonesia and Vietnam will drive Asia Pacific's growth as China's expansion is moderating.
Developing Asian countries will drive the world economy in the next two years, the Asian Development Bank said Thursday, but it warned of uncertainties from the United States and Europe.
Its flagship Asian Development Outlook said India, Malaysia, Indonesia and Vietnam will be behind an expected 5.7 percent increase in Asia-Pacific gross domestic product, with China's expansion seen moderating.
"Developing Asia continues to drive the global economy even as the region adjusts to a more consumption-driven economy in the People's Republic of China," ADB's chief economist, Yasuyuki Sawada, said in a statement published Thursday.
With China's economy seen slowing to 6.5 percent growth in 2017 and then 6.2 percent in 2018, regional expansion is tipped to come in slightly weaker than the 5.8 percent seen last year.
Chinese growth is at its weakest levels in a quarter of a century, hit by a drop in global demand for its goods but also as its leaders try to transform it from an economy driven by trade and state investment to one supported by domestic demand.
"The recent upswing in the real estate sector and heavy industries will not last," ADB analyst Jürgen Conrad said at a Beijing news conference Thursday.
"It doesn't fit nicely in the rebalancing of the Chinese economy."
Conrad added that a crucial challenge will be ensuring that investments are "truly productive" in a country where the state is responsible for a third of total investments.
While there is a solid foundation for growth, ADB Country Director for China Ben Bingham said, "the process of moving people from rural poverty to urban middle-class is far from complete."
The Manila-based regional bank also warned that the uncertain outlook in the United States and Europe threw up risks.
As the U.S. economy continues to strengthen, expectations are for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates further this year -- having already been lifted twice since December.
Higher Fed borrowing costs tend to hit emerging economies as it means investors withdraw their cash to seek better and safer returns in the U.S.
"Rising consumer and business confidence and a declining unemployment rate have fuelled U.S. growth, but uncertainty over future economic policies may test confidence," the ADB said.
There are also lingering worries about President Donald Trump's warnings to revise global trade deals, fuelling speculation he could spark a trade war.
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